Monday, December 11, 2000

Revenge of the Bears

Each year we ask a dozen Wall Street pros to pick one stock for year-ahead performance. We also ask five bears to each pick one stock for a short sale.

Results: The picks of our five bears declined an average of 23%, handily beating the S&P 500, which was down only 5% over the span of our contest (Dec. 3, 1999 to Nov. 13, 2000). Our 12 bullish contestants had a 3% loss, scarcely beating the market.

The star bear: Joseph L. Toms, president of Hilspen Capital. His short call last year, Internet Capital Group, an incubator of Internet companies, is off 88%. So much for the B2B bonanza.

Runner-up bear is Lou A. Cardinali of Fiero Brothers, who predictedthat 4Kids Entertainment would fall once the Pokemon craze subsided. Good call. The stock is off 74%. Now Cardinali perceives Krispy Kreme, a recently public company trading at 129 times trailing earnings, as another fad: "It is just an overvalued doughnut shop."

Fulls story (reg. required) at Forbes.com