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Andrew T. Gillies is Director of Communications at the Center for Audit Quality, an affiliate of the American Institute of CPAs, in Washington, DC. Based in Washington since 2002, he has also worked in editorial and communications roles at the Investment Company Institute, the World Bank, Forbes, and Vault.com. His policy-themed writing has focused on aerospace and defense, energy and environment, transportation, and financial services.

Monday, December 11, 2000

Revenge of the Bears

Each year we ask a dozen Wall Street pros to pick one stock for year-ahead performance. We also ask five bears to each pick one stock for a short sale.

Results: The picks of our five bears declined an average of 23%, handily beating the S&P 500, which was down only 5% over the span of our contest (Dec. 3, 1999 to Nov. 13, 2000). Our 12 bullish contestants had a 3% loss, scarcely beating the market.

The star bear: Joseph L. Toms, president of Hilspen Capital. His short call last year, Internet Capital Group, an incubator of Internet companies, is off 88%. So much for the B2B bonanza.

Runner-up bear is Lou A. Cardinali of Fiero Brothers, who predictedthat 4Kids Entertainment would fall once the Pokemon craze subsided. Good call. The stock is off 74%. Now Cardinali perceives Krispy Kreme, a recently public company trading at 129 times trailing earnings, as another fad: "It is just an overvalued doughnut shop."

Fulls story (reg. required) at Forbes.com